Association between primary care electrocardiogram markers and Alzheimer's disease.

OBJECTIVE: The association between common electrocardiogram (ECG) markers and Alzheimer's disease has been scarcely investigated, and it is unknown if ECG markers can improve risk prediction. Thus, we aimed to examine the association between common ECG markers and Alzheimer's disease in a large population. METHODS: We studied the association between ECG markers and Alzheimer's disease using Cox models with adjustment for age, sex, and comorbidities using a large primary care population of patients aged 60 years or more. RESULTS: We followed 172,236 subjects for a median of 7.5 years. Increased PR interval (hazard ratio for PR > 188 ms: 0.76 [95% confidence interval: 0.69-0.83, p < 0.001) and increased QTc interval (hazard ratio for QTc = [426;439]: 0.90 [0.83-0.98], p = 0.02) were associated with a decreased rate of Alzheimer's disease. A positive Sokolow-Lyon index >35 mm (1.22 [1.13-1.33], p < 0.001) and increased T-wave amplitude >4.1 mm (1.15 [1.04-1.27]) were associated with an increased rate of Alzheimer's disease. Upon addition of ECG markers to a reference model, 10-year prediction area under the receiver-operator characteristics curve (AUC) improved by 0.39 [0.06-0.67] %-points. The 10-year absolute risk of Alzheimer's disease was 6.5% and 5.2% for an 82-year old female and a male, respectively, with a favorable ECG, and 12% and 9.2%, respectively, with an unfavorable ECG, almost twice as high. CONCLUSIONS: We identified several common ECG markers which were associated with Alzheimer's disease, and which improved risk prediction for Alzheimer's disease.

Associations between primary care electrocardiography and non-Alzheimer dementia.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether electrocardiogram (ECG) markers are associated with incident non-Alzheimer's dementia (non-AD) and whether these markers also improve risk prediction for non-AD. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively included 170,605 primary care patients aged 60 years or older referred for an ECG by their general practitioner and followed them for a median of 7.6 years. Using Cox regression, we reported hazard ratios (HRs) for electrocardiogram markers. Subsequently, we evaluated if addition of these electrocardiogram markers to a clinical model improved risk prediction for non-AD using change in area under the receiver-operator characteristics curve (AUC). RESULTS: The 5-year cumulative incidence of non-AD was 3.4 %. Increased heart rate (HR=1.06 pr. 10 bpm [95% confidence interval: 1.04-1.08], p<0.001), shorter QRS duration (HR=1.07 pr. 10 ms [1.05-1.09], p<0.001), elevated J-amplitude (HR=1.16 pr. mm [1.08-1.24], p<0.001), decreased T-peak amplitude (HR=1.02 pr. mm [1.01-1.04], p=0.002), and increased QTc (HR=1.08 pr. 20 ms [1.05-1.10], p<0.001) were associated with an increased rate of non-AD. Atrial fibrillation on the ECG (HR=1.18 [1.08-1.28], p<0.001) Sokolow-Lyon index > 35 mm (HR=1.31 [1.18-1.46], p<0.001) and borderline (HR=1.18 [1.11-1.26], p<0.001) or abnormal (HR=1.40 [1.27-1.55], p<0.001) QRS-T angle were also associated with an increased rate of non-AD. Upon addition of ECG markers to the Cox model, 5-year and 10-year C-statistic (AUC) improved significantly (delta-AUC, 0.36 [0.18-0.50] and 0.20 [0.03-0.35] %-points, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: ECG markers typical of an elevated cardiovascular risk profile were associated with non-AD and improved both 5-year and 10-year risk predictions for non-AD.

Polygenic risk score for ACE-inhibitor-associated cough based on the discovery of new genetic loci.

AIMS: To search for sequence variants associated with ACEi discontinuation and to test their association with ACEi-associated adverse drug reactions (ADRs). METHODS AND RESULTS: A genome-wide association study (GWAS) on ACEi discontinuation was conducted, including 33 959 ACEi-discontinuers and 44 041 controls. Cases were defined as persons who switched from an ACEi treatment to an angiotensin receptor blocker. Controls were defined as persons who continued ACEi treatment for at least 1 year. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were computed for ACEi discontinuation risk by mixed model regression analysis. Summary statistics from the individual cohorts were meta-analyzed with a fixed-effects model. To test for association with specific ACEi-associated ADRs, any genome-wide significant (P < 5 × 10-8) ACEi discontinuation variants was tested for association with ACEi-associated cough and angioedema. A polygenetic risk score (PRS) based on ACEi discontinuation GWAS data was constructed and tested for association with ACEi-associated cough and angioedema in two population-based samples. In total, seven genetic genome-wide loci were identified, of which six were previously unreported. The strongest association with ACEi discontinuation was at 20q13.3 (NTSR1; OR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.17-1.24; P = 2.1 × 10-34). Five of seven lead variants were associated with ACEi-associated cough, whereas none were associated with ACEi-associated angioedema. The ACEi discontinuation PRS was associated with ACEi-associated cough in a dose-response manner but not with ACEi-associated angioedema. ACEi discontinuation was genetically correlated with important causes for cough, including gastro-esophageal reflux disease, allergic rhinitis, hay fever, and asthma, which indicates partly shared genetic underpinning between these traits. CONCLUSION: This study showed the advantage of using prescription patterns to discover genetic links with ADRs. In total, seven genetic loci that associated with ACEi discontinuation were identified. There was evidence of a strong association between our ADR phenotype and ACEi-associated cough. Taken together, these findings increase insight into the pathophysiological processes that underlie ACEi-associated ADRs.

Electrocardiography in euthyroid individuals: a Danish general population study.

BACKGROUND: Thyroid hormones within the euthyroid range have been linked to mortality and differences in heart rate. However, some relations between thyroid hormone concentration and various electrocardiographic measurements remain unassessed. We aimed to investigate the association between thyroid hormone concentrations within the euthyroid range and different electrocardiographic markers in people free of thyroid disease. METHODS: We obtained electrocardiograms (ECG) and blood samples of free T4, total T3, and thyrotropin (TSH) in 20,852 subjects from the general population (the GESUS study). Relations between concentrations of TSH, free T4, and total T3 and heart rate, QTc, QRS duration, PR interval, P-wave duration and T-wave morphology were assessed in a multivariate adjusted linear model stratified by sex. RESULTS: Roughly half of the 18,046 included participants with thyroid hormone measurements within euthyroid range were men, and the average age was 56 years. Heart rate increased with concentrations of T3 (6.4 bpm/nM, P<0.001 in women and 5.3 bpm/nM, P<0.001 in men) and T4 (3.7 bpm/10pM, P<0.001 in women and 3.1 bpm/10pM, P<0.001 in men). We found no relation between TSH and heart rate. PR interval and QRS duration decreased with higher concentrations of T3 (all P<0.01). QTc increased with higher concentrations of T4 in men (5 ms/10pM), and T waves were flatter, more asymmetric, and more often had notches with higher concentrations of T4 (all P≤0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Thyroid hormone concentrations within the euthyroid range in people free of thyroid disease were associated with changes in the electrocardiogram in a general population.

Early glycaemic changes after initiation of oral antidiabetic medication and risk of major adverse cardiovascular events: results from a large primary care population of patients with type 2 diabetes.

AIMS: To determine the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and death, associated with an early large and rapid decline in glycated haemoglobin (HbA1C) following first time initiation of an oral antidiabetic drug (OAD). METHODS AND RESULTS: We included 10 518 primary care patients with type 2 diabetes, who initiated an OAD for the first time. For each individual, we measured a decline in HbA1C, as the difference between the pre-treatment HbA1C (within 3 months before OAD initiation) and the post-treatment HbA1C (within 1.5-4.5 months after OAD initiation), divided by the time between the two measurements. The decline was reported in mmol/mol change per 3 months in HbA1C and categorized by the median decline into levels of steep [≥9 mmol/mol (≥0.8%)] and flat decline [<9 mmol/mol per 3 months (<0.8%)]. Pre-treatment HbA1C was categorized by the median, into levels of low (48-62 mmol/mol) and high (>62 mmol/mol). Multiple Cox regression was used to study the effect of decline (steep vs. flat) on the outcome hazard rates separately for patients with low and high pre-treatment HbA1C. Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, traditional cardiovascular risk factors, severe comorbidities, and concomitant medication treatment. During a median follow-up time of 7.7 years, 1625 developed MACE and 2323 died. We found that a steep decline vs. a flat decline was significantly associated with a decreased hazard for MACE, both in individuals with high [hazard ratio (HR) 0.81; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.69-0.94; P = 0.005] and low pre-treatment HbA1C (HR 0.79; 95% CI 0.66-0.96; P = 0.015). The hazard of MACE was more pronounced on the short-term vs. long-term in individuals with high pre-treatment HbA1C. We found no significant association between combinations of pre-treatment HbA1C and decline categories and hazard of all-cause mortality. However, a combination of a low pre-treatment HbA1C and steep decline was associated with increased 1-year mortality (HR 1.52; 95% CI 1.00-2.29; P = 0.048) and hypoglycaemia (HR 1.82; 95% CI 1.11-2.98; P = 0.017). CONCLUSION: A combination of a high pre-treatment HbA1C and a steep decline in HbA1C was associated with a decreased short-term risk of MACE. A low pre-treatment HbA1C and a steep decline was associated with a long-term reduced risk of MACE, but a short-term increased risk of death and hypoglycaemia.

Electrocardiographic T-wave morphology and risk of mortality.

BACKGROUND: Electrocardiographic T-wave morphology is used in drug safety studies as an adjunct to the QTc interval, but few measurements of T-wave morphology can be interpreted in clinical practice. Morphology combination score (MCS) is a combination of T-wave flatness/peakedness, asymmetry, and notching, enabling easy visual assessment of T-wave morphology. We aimed to test the association between T-wave morphology, quantified by MCS, and mortality. METHODS: We included electrocardiograms recorded in 2001-2011 from 342,294 primary care patients. Using Cox regression, we evaluated the association between MCS, cardiovascular death, and all-cause mortality, adjusting for heart rate, QTc, QT-prolonging drugs, diabetes, ischemic heart disease, hypertension, and congestive heart failure. RESULTS: 270,039 individuals (44% men, median age 55 [inter-quartile range: 42-67 years]) were included and followed for a median of 9.3 years, during which time 13,489 (5.0%) died from cardiovascular causes and 50,481 (18.7%) from any cause. High values of MCS (i.e. asymmetric, flattened, and/or notched T waves) were associated with an adjusted mortality Hazard Ratio of 1.75 (95% CI 1.62-1.89) and 1.61 (1.43-1.92) for women and men, respectively. Low values of MCS (i.e. peaked and symmetric T waves) were associated with a Hazard Ratio of 1.18 (1.08-1.28) and 1.71 (1.48-1.98) for women and men, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In a large primary care population, we found that T-wave asymmetry, flatness, and notching provided prognostic information on mortality independent of heart rate, QTc, and baseline comorbidities.

Effect of diabetes duration on the relationship between glycaemic control and risk of death in older adults with type 2 diabetes.

AIM: To investigate the effect of diabetes duration on glycaemic control, measured using mean glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) level, and mortality risk within different age, sex and clinically relevant, comorbidity-defined subgroups in an elderly population with type 2 diabetes (T2D). METHODS: We studied older (≥65 years) primary care patients with T2D, who had three successive annual measurements of HbA1c taken between 2005 and 2013. The primary exposure was the mean of all three HbA1c measurements. Follow-up began on the date of the third measurement. Individual mean HbA1c levels were categorized into clinically relevant groups (<6.5% [<48 mmol/mol]; 6.5%-6.9% [48-52 mmol/mol]; 7%-7.9% [53-63 mmol/mol]; 8%-8.9% [64-74 mmol/mol]; and ≥9% [≥75 mmol/mol]). We used multiple Cox regression to study the effect of glycaemic control on the hazard of all-cause mortality, adjusted for age, sex, use of concomitant medication, and age- and disease-related comorbidities. RESULTS: A total of 9734 individuals were included. During a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 7.3 (4.6-8.7) years, 3320 individuals died. We found that the effect of mean HbA1c on all-cause mortality depended on the duration of diabetes (P for interaction <.001). For individuals with short diabetes duration (<5 years), the risk of death increased with poorer glycaemic control (increasing HbA1c), whereas for individuals with longstanding diabetes (≥5 years), we found a J-shaped association, where a mean HbA1c level between 6.5% and 7.9% [48 and 63 mmol/mol] was associated with the lowest risk of death. For individuals with longstanding diabetes, both low (<6.5% [<48 mmol/mol]; hazard ratio [HR] 1.21, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07-1.37, P = .002) and high mean HbA1c levels (≥9.0% [≥75 mmol/mol]; HR 1.60, 95% CI 1.28-1.99, P < .001) were associated with an increased risk of death. We also calculated 5-year absolute risks of all-cause mortality, separately for short and long diabetes duration, and found similar risk patterns across different age groups, sex and comorbidity strata. CONCLUSIONS: In elderly individuals with T2D, the effect of glycaemic control (measured by HbA1c) on all-cause mortality depended on the duration of diabetes. Of particular clinical importance, we found that strict glycaemic control was associated with an increased risk of death among individuals with long (≥ 5 years) diabetes duration. Conversely, for individuals with short diabetes duration, strict glycaemic control was associated with the lowest risk of death. These results indicate that tight glycemic control may be beneficial in people with short duration of diabetes, whereas a less stringent target may be warranted with longer diabetes exposure.

Genome-wide association study identifies locus at chromosome 2q32.1 associated with syncope and collapse.

AIMS: Syncope is a common condition associated with frequent hospitalization or visits to the emergency department. Family aggregation and twin studies have shown that syncope has a heritable component. We investigated whether common genetic variants predispose to syncope and collapse. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used genome-wide association data on syncope on 408 961 individuals with European ancestry from the UK Biobank study. In a replication study, we used the Integrative Psychiatric Research Consortium (iPSYCH) cohort (n = 86 189), to investigate the risk of incident syncope stratified by genotype carrier status. We report on a genome-wide significant locus located on chromosome 2q32.1 [odds ratio = 1.13, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.10-1.17, P = 5.8 × 10-15], with lead single nucleotide polymorphism rs12465214 in proximity to the gene zinc finger protein 804a (ZNF804A). This association was also shown in the iPSYCH cohort, where homozygous carriers of the C allele conferred an increased hazard ratio (1.30, 95% CI 1.15-1.46, P = 1.68 × 10-5) of incident syncope. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction analysis showed ZNF804A to be expressed most abundantly in brain tissue. CONCLUSION: We identified a genome-wide significant locus (rs12465214) associated with syncope and collapse. The association was replicated in an independent cohort. This is the first genome-wide association study to associate a locus with syncope and collapse.

Visit-to-Visit Variability of Hemoglobin A1c in People Without Diabetes and Risk of Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events and All-Cause Mortality.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to study whether visit-to-visit variability of glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) is associated with incident major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), all-cause mortality, and type 2 diabetes in people without diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We included primary care patients with no history of diabetes or cardiovascular disease and with three annual HbA1c measurements within normal range (<6.5% [48 mmol/mol]). For each individual, we measured the HbA1c variability as the SD of the residuals obtained from a linear regression on the three HbA1c measurements. From the linear regression, we also obtained the estimated index HbA1c (intercept) and the trend over time (slope). Follow-up began at the date of the third measurement. Associations between HbA1c variability and outcome were analyzed using Cox regression, adjusted for traditional risk factors, intercept, and trend and reported as hazard ratio per SD increase in variability (HRSD). RESULTS: In total, 6,756 individuals were included. During a median follow-up time of 6.3 years, 996 developed MACE, 856 died, and 1,267 developed type 2 diabetes. We found a significant association between increasing HbA1c variability and incident MACE (HRSD 1.09 [95% CI 1.03-1.15]) and all-cause mortality (HRSD 1.13 [95% CI 1.07-1.20]), whereas there were no associations with type 2 diabetes (HRSD 1.00 [95% CI 0.95-1.05]). We calculated 5-year absolute risks of MACE and all-cause mortality and found clinically relevant differences across several age, sex, comorbidity, and HbA1c variability-defined subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: In a primary care population free of diabetes and cardiovascular disease, high HbA1c variability was associated with increased risks of MACE and all-cause mortality.

Biobank-driven genomic discovery yields new insight into atrial fibrillation biology.

To identify genetic variation underlying atrial fibrillation, the most common cardiac arrhythmia, we performed a genome-wide association study of >1,000,000 people, including 60,620 atrial fibrillation cases and 970,216 controls. We identified 142 independent risk variants at 111 loci and prioritized 151 functional candidate genes likely to be involved in atrial fibrillation. Many of the identified risk variants fall near genes where more deleterious mutations have been reported to cause serious heart defects in humans (GATA4, MYH6, NKX2-5, PITX2, TBX5)1, or near genes important for striated muscle function and integrity (for example, CFL2, MYH7, PKP2, RBM20, SGCG, SSPN). Pathway and functional enrichment analyses also suggested that many of the putative atrial fibrillation genes act via cardiac structural remodeling, potentially in the form of an 'atrial cardiomyopathy'2, either during fetal heart development or as a response to stress in the adult heart.

Brugada Syndrome-Associated Genetic Loci Are Associated With J-Point Elevation and an Increased Risk of Cardiac Arrest.

Introduction: A previous genome-wide association study found three genetic loci, rs9388451, rs10428132, and rs11708996, to increase the risk of Brugada Syndrome (BrS). Since the effect of these loci in the general population is unknown, we aimed to investigate the effect on electrocardiogram (ECG) parameters and outcomes in the general population. Materials and Methods: A cohort of 6,161 individuals (median age 45 [interquartile range (IQR) 40-50] years, 49% males), with available digital ECGs, was genotyped and subsequently followed for a median period of 13 [IQR 12.6-13.4] years. Data on outcomes were collected from Danish administrative healthcare registries. Furthermore, ~400,000 persons from UK Biobank were investigated for associations between the three loci and cardiac arrest/ventricular fibrillation (VF). Results: Homozygote carriers of the C allele in rs6800541 intronic to SCN10A had a significantly larger J-point elevation (JPE) compared with wildtype carriers (11 vs. 6 µV, P < 0.001). There was an additive effect of carrying multiple BrS-associated risk alleles with an increased JPE in lead V1. None of the BrS-associated genetic loci predisposed to syncope, atrial fibrillation, or total mortality in the general Danish population. The rs9388451 genetic locus adjacent to the HEY2 gene was associated with cardiac arrest/VF in an analysis using the UK Biobank study (odds ratio = 1.13 (95% confidence interval: 1.08-1.18), P = 0.006). Conclusions: BrS-associated risk alleles increase the JPE in lead V1 in an additive manner, but was not associated with increased mortality or syncope in the general population of Denmark. However, the HEY2 risk allele increased the risk of cardiac arrest/VF in the larger population study of UK Biobank indicating an important role of this common genetic locus.

Risk Prediction of Atrial Fibrillation Based on Electrocardiographic Interatrial Block.

BACKGROUND: The electrocardiographic interatrial block (IAB) has been associated with atrial fibrillation (AF). We aimed to test whether IAB can improve risk prediction of AF for the individual person. METHODS AND RESULTS: Digital ECGs of 152 759 primary care patients aged 50 to 90 years were collected from 2001 to 2011. We identified individuals with P-wave ≥120 ms and the presence of none, 1, 2, or 3 biphasic P-waves in inferior leads. Data on comorbidity, medication, and outcomes were obtained from nationwide registries. We observed a dose-response relationship between the number of biphasic P-waves in inferior leads and the hazard of AF during follow-up. Discrimination of the 10-year outcome of AF, measured by time-dependent area under the curve, was increased by 1.09% (95% confidence interval 0.43-1.74%) for individuals with cardiovascular disease at baseline (CVD) and 1.01% (95% confidence interval 0.40-1.62%) for individuals without CVD, when IAB was added to a conventional risk model for AF. The highest effect of IAB on the absolute risk of AF was observed in individuals aged 60 to 70 years with CVD. In this subgroup, the 10-year risk of AF was 50% in those with advanced IAB compared with 10% in those with a normal P-wave. In general, individuals with advanced IAB and no CVD had a higher risk of AF than patients with CVD and no IAB. CONCLUSIONS: IAB improves risk prediction of AF when added to a conventional risk model. Clinicians may consider monitoring patients with IAB more closely for the occurrence of AF, especially for high-risk subgroups.

Electrocardiographic Preexcitation and Risk of Cardiovascular Morbidity and Mortality: Results From the Copenhagen ECG Study.

BACKGROUND: The majority of available data on the clinical course of patients with ventricular preexcitation in the ECG originates from tertiary centers. We aimed to investigate long-term outcomes in individuals from a primary care population with electrocardiographic preexcitation. METHODS AND RESULTS: Digital ECGs from 328 638 primary care patients were collected during 2001 to 2011. We identified 310 individuals with preexcitation (age range, 8-85 years). Data on medication, comorbidity, and outcomes were collected from Danish nationwide registries. The median follow-up time was 7.4 years (quartiles, 4.6-10.3 years). Compared with the remainder of the population, patients with preexcitation had higher adjusted hazards of atrial fibrillation (hazard ratio [HR], 3.12; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.07-4.70) and heart failure (HR, 2.11; 95% CI, 1.27-3.50). Subgroup analysis on accessory pathway location revealed a higher adjusted hazard of heart failure for a right anteroseptal accessory pathway (HR, 5.88; 95% CI, 2.63-13.1). There was no evidence of a higher hazard of death among individuals with preexcitation when looking across all age groups (HR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.68-1.68). However, a statistically significant (P=0.01) interaction analysis (<65 versus ≥65 years) indicated a higher hazard of death for patients with preexcitation ≥65 years (HR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.07-3.18). CONCLUSIONS: In this large ECG study, individuals with preexcitation had higher hazards of atrial fibrillation and heart failure. The higher hazard of heart failure seemed to be driven by a right anteroseptal accessory pathway. Among elderly people, we found a statistically significant association between preexcitation and a higher hazard of death.

Numerous Brugada syndrome-associated genetic variants have no effect on J-point elevation, syncope susceptibility, malignant cardiac arrhythmia, and all-cause mortality.

PURPOSE: We investigated whether Brugada syndrome (BrS)-associated variants identified in the general population have an effect on J-point elevation as well as whether carriers of BrS variants were more prone to experience syncope and malignant ventricular arrhythmia and had increased mortality compared with noncarriers. METHODS: All BrS-associated variants were identified using the Human Gene Mutation Database (HGMD). Individuals were randomly selected from a general population study using whole-exome sequencing data (n = 870) and genotype array data (n = 6,161) and screened for BrS-associated variants. Electrocardiograms (ECG) were analyzed electronically, and data on syncope, ventricular arrhythmias, and mortality were obtained from administrative health-care registries. RESULTS: In HGMD, 382 BrS-associated genetic variants were identified. Of these, 28 variants were identified in the study cohort. None of the carriers presented with type 1 BrS ECG pattern. Mean J-point elevation in V1 and V2 were within normal guideline limits for carriers and noncarriers. There was no difference in syncope susceptibility (carriers 8/624; noncarriers 98/5,562; P = 0.51), ventricular arrhythmia (carriers 4/620; noncarriers 9/5,524; P = 0.24), or overall mortality (hazard ratio 0.93, 95% CI 0.63-1.4). CONCLUSIONS: Our data indicate that a significant number of BrS-associated variants are not the monogenic cause of BrS.Genet Med advance online publication 06 October 2016.

Association Between Heart Rate at Rest and Incident Atrial Fibrillation (from the Copenhagen Electrocardiographic Study).

Heart rate (HR) at rest is a well-known marker of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Results on the association between HR and incident atrial fibrillation (AF) have, however, been conflicting. Using digital electrocardiograms from 281,451 primary care patients, we aimed to describe the association between HR at rest and the hazards of incident AF. Secondary end points were death from all causes and pacemaker implantation. Data on drug use, co-morbidity, and outcomes were collected from nationwide administrative health care registries. During a median follow-up time of 8.4 years, 15,666 subjects were observed to develop AF, of which 1,631 were lone AF. A HR at rest from 30 to 51 beats/min was associated with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.16 (95% CI 1.06 to 1.27) for AF compared with the reference group (66 to 72 beats/min). From 72 beats/min and upward, the hazard ratio of AF increased in a dose-response manner, reaching an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.36 (95% CI 1.26 to 1.46) for HR between 95 and 120 beats/min. Both for low and high HR, the associations were accentuated for the outcome lone AF (adjusted hazard ratios of 1.48, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.84 and 1.84, 95% CI 1.47 to 2.30 for HR between 30 to 51 and 95 to 120 beats/min, respectively). For death from all causes, the hazard increased almost linearly with increasing HR. A HR at rest from 30 to 51 beats/min was associated with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.80 (95% CI 1.46 to 2.21) for pacemaker implantation. In conclusion, a U-shaped association was found between HR at rest and incident AF, and this association was strongest for the outcome lone AF.

Electrocardiographic Tpeak-Tend interval and risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality: Results from the Copenhagen ECG study.

BACKGROUND: The electrocardiographic Tpeak-Tend interval is considered a novel risk marker of cardiac arrhythmias and cardiovascular death; however, results to date have been conflicting. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between this interval and the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, atrial fibrillation, and heart failure, allowing for nonlinear relationships. METHODS: From primary care, 138,404 individuals were included and categorized into seven groups based on Tpeak-Tend interval. Cox regression models were used to describe the association between these groups and the risk of the selected outcomes. RESULTS: Compared with the reference groups (104-115 ms for all-cause mortality and 98-103 ms for all other outcomes), individuals with a Tpeak-Tend interval in lead V5 <5th percentile (58-77 ms) had hazard ratios of 1.29 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.21-1.38, P <.001) for all-cause mortality, 1.31 (95% CI 1.15-1.50, P <.001) for cardiovascular death, 1.18 (95% CI 1.06-1.32, P = .003) for atrial fibrillation, and 1.52 (95% CI 1.33-1.74, P <.001) for heart failure. Individuals with a Tpeak-Tend interval ≥95th percentile (116-140 ms) had hazard ratios of 1.15 (95% CI 1.08-1.23, P <.001) for all-cause mortality, 1.30 (95% CI 1.15-1.47, P <.001) for cardiovascular death, 1.09 (95% CI 0.99-1.22, P = .088) for atrial fibrillation, and 1.28 (95% CI 1.12-1.46, P <.001) for heart failure. Similar results were obtained for leads II and V2. CONCLUSION: We observed U-shaped associations between the Tpeak-Tend interval and risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, atrial fibrillation, and heart failure.